Padel’s next phase: From expansion to execution

Insights from the 2026 Global Padel Report by Playtomic and Strategy&.

Padel is still growing, but the market’s easiest phase may be ending.

In 2025, the global market added 7,898 courts and 4,969 clubs, bringing the worldwide total to 58,334 courts. That represents 16% year-over-year growth and an approximately sixfold increase in the number of courts since 2016.

These figures confirm the scale of padel’s adoption. However, court growth alone does not show where the strongest opportunities will emerge next.

The more important strategic takeaway is that padel is shifting from rapid capacity expansion to operational discipline. The industry is no longer defined simply by how many courts are built. It increasingly depends on how effectively clubs monetize each available court-hour, manage demand, and convert occasional participation into recurring visits, additional spending, and sustainable property value.

Early markets rewarded access to suitable sites and the ability to build quickly. The next phase will reward utilization, indoor coverage, pricing power, reliable data, a strong mix of services, and consistent execution.

The court remains the physical asset, but the operating model around it is becoming the primary source of competitive advantage.

Growth remains strong, but it is increasingly uneven

One of the report’s most useful contributions is its framework for classifying markets according to ecosystem maturity and demand strength.

This distinction matters because padel is no longer following a single global growth pattern.

Spain, Italy, Portugal, and Argentina are classified as Padel Heartlands. These are mature markets where structural growth has slowed, but commercial opportunities remain. Value is shifting toward refurbishment, premium offerings, maintenance, consolidation among club chains, and better use of existing facilities.

The Netherlands, Belgium, France, Switzerland, and South Africa are in The Sweet Spot. Demand is established, but the market is not yet structurally saturated. These countries offer a more balanced expansion path, with new supply developing more closely in line with demand.

The UK, Germany, and Ireland are classified as The Hotspot. They show rapid adoption, strong urban demand, and relatively high pricing power, but they also face site shortages, permitting complexity, and infrastructure constraints.

The US, India, Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, and Poland remain Diamonds in the Rough. These are large potential markets where participation is still concentrated, fragmented, and often limited to higher-income customer groups.

Sweden, Finland, and Chile are in a Post-Boom Adjustment phase. In these countries, rapid supply growth moved ahead of sustainable demand, leading to declining utilization, restructuring, consolidation, and club closures.

Some regions, particularly the Middle East, require separate analysis because their development is often driven by capital-intensive, premium club models rather than broad grassroots participation.

This classification is more than a market-segmentation exercise. It can help operators, investors, and property owners decide where and how to allocate capital.

A court that appears attractive in a supply-constrained UK city may perform poorly in an oversupplied Nordic market. A premium club concept that succeeds in Dubai or Miami may not generate broad participation in a lower-density market where regular playing habits are not yet established.

Padel is becoming global as a sport, but its economics remain highly local.

Club economics now depend on court-hour productivity

The report analyzes club performance through what it calls the court-hour engine.

This is a useful framework because a padel club does not create value simply by owning or operating courts. It creates value by turning available court-hours into revenue through utilization, pricing, repeat visits, organized programs, and additional customer spending.

The most useful unit of analysis is therefore not the court itself, but each available hour that the club can successfully sell.

The differences between markets are substantial.

Monthly gross merchandise value, or GMV, per court is approximately:

• €9,900 in the UK;
• €6,400 in Germany;
• €5,800 in France;
• €5,700 in the Netherlands;
• €1,500 in Spain.

The report defines GMV as the total booking value generated. These figures are based on Playtomic’s proprietary platform data and reflect observable booking activity within its ecosystem.

They should therefore be treated as directional operating benchmarks rather than a complete measure of club revenue. A club may also earn income from food and beverage sales, retail, coaching, wellness services, memberships, events, or offline bookings that do not pass through the platform.

Some of the difference in GMV per court reflects market maturity. Some reflects pricing power, indoor availability, utilization, and the intensity of local demand.

The broader conclusion is clear: padel is not a standardized facility business. Club performance depends heavily on local demand, pricing, scheduling, capacity management, and execution.

The clearest evidence is the performance gap between clubs. Top-performing clubs generate approximately €3,531 in monthly booking revenue per court, compared with €736 among bottom performers. That is a difference of nearly five times.

No single factor explains this gap. It comes from coordinated performance across seven operating levers:

1. Courts per club: The scale of the individual facility.
2. Games per court per month: The intensity of court utilization.
3. Average price per hour: The club’s ability to maintain pricing power.
4. Online booking share: The proportion of bookings made through digital platforms.
5. Indoor court share: Protection against weather and seasonal disruption.
6. Open-match share: Participation in social matches organized through the platform.
7. Academy and competition share: Activity generated by coaching, leagues, tournaments, and structured programs.

The distinction between different types of demand is especially important.

Latent demand means that people are interested in playing but may not yet have access to courts or established playing habits.

Recurring demand means that players return regularly and make padel part of their routine.

Monetizable demand means that this recurring participation can support sustainable pricing, utilization, and additional spending.

A market can show strong latent interest without yet having enough recurring or monetizable demand to justify rapid expansion.

The strongest club model is therefore not simply based on building more courts in more locations. It is based on managing pricing, programming, customer conversion, demand, and asset quality as one coordinated system.

Scale without operational discipline can create overcapacity. Scale supported by strong data, programming, and pricing capabilities can produce a lasting advantage.

Regulation and infrastructure determine where supply can grow

Infrastructure constraints are not only slowing growth. In some markets, they are also determining which business models remain viable.

Germany is a clear example. The market is expanding through tennis-club conversions, indoor facilities, and increasingly professional operators. However, strict permitting requirements, weather conditions, and noise regulations limit outdoor development.

These constraints encourage investment in larger, higher-quality indoor venues with greater automation and more professional operating structures.

Regulation does not eliminate growth, but it raises the financial and operational requirements for entering the market.

Well-capitalized operators that can manage approvals, secure suitable sites, finance indoor developments, and run larger venues have a structural advantage. Smaller, independent operators face greater execution risk.

The UK faces a related but distinct challenge.

Major UK clubs report average peak-hour occupancy of approximately 85%, while around half of players say they have difficulty securing a court during peak periods.

The main constraint is therefore not a lack of customer interest. It is the limited availability of well-located sites that can secure approval and support a commercially viable operation.

This points to a broader lesson for the next phase of padel’s development. Infrastructure bottlenecks may matter more than consumer awareness.

Growth will depend less on proving that people want to play and more on whether operators can deliver the right venue formats in the right locations while meeting local planning, noise, weather, and infrastructure requirements.

Digital systems and broader services now determine club performance

Digital tools are often treated as a convenience layer that supports bookings, payments, and customer communication.

In padel, they are becoming central to the operating model.

As clubs move beyond basic court rental, operators need reliable data on:

• occupancy;
• pressure during peak hours;
• unused off-peak capacity;
• price sensitivity;
• open-match demand;
• academy participation;
• competition and event attendance;
• customer frequency;
• additional spending.

Without this data, a club must manage changing demand and pricing with limited visibility into what is working.

Better data also changes how investors and property owners evaluate club performance. Reliable information on occupancy, booking value per court, customer frequency, service mix, and retention makes it possible to compare venues using measurable evidence rather than anecdotal impressions.

Digital infrastructure therefore does more than improve the player experience. It makes club economics easier to understand, compare, and finance.

This becomes even more important as clubs expand beyond basic court booking.

The report states that nine in ten top-performing clubs offer experiences beyond the court. Among these clubs:

• approximately 74% offer social events, such as networking events, women-only socials, and food and beverage experiences;
• approximately 72% offer instructor-led activities, including Pilates, yoga, and group coaching;
• approximately 56% offer access to facilities and wellness services, such as gyms, pools, and saunas;
• approximately 38% offer additional services, including video recording and ball machines.

These services can create additional revenue and strengthen retention, but they also make the business more complex.

Scheduling, staffing, coaching, food and beverage operations, wellness areas, leagues, events, and community programs all require coordination.

A basic court-booking facility can operate with a relatively simple structure. A club that combines sport, social activity, wellness, and regular programming requires consistent service, coordinated scheduling, reliable customer data, and a disciplined brand experience.

Technology therefore shifts from a supporting function to a central part of club operations.

The broader the club’s service offering becomes, the more dependent it is on integrated systems and reliable data.

Padel is expanding into real estate and consumer products

Padel’s commercial opportunity increasingly extends beyond court bookings.

Real estate

Padel is being integrated into residential, hospitality, retail, mixed-use, and leisure properties.

The attraction is not simply that people enjoy the sport. Padel can generate repeat visits, social interaction, foot traffic, longer dwell times, and recurring activity around a property.

In Spain, shopping centers with strong leisure and sports offerings recorded approximately 9% higher foot traffic in 2024. This does not prove that padel alone caused the increase, but it supports the broader argument that sports and leisure amenities can strengthen destination appeal.

Integrated sports developments can also contribute to residential value. Quinta do Lago in Portugal, for example, has reported approximately 30% residential value appreciation alongside high owner retention. Again, the result cannot be attributed solely to padel, but it illustrates how high-quality sports and wellness infrastructure can support a broader property proposition.

In mature markets, padel can support refurbishment, placemaking, and asset enhancement. In new developments, it can help activate a broader sports and wellness offering. In existing properties, it can turn underused space into a source of recurring activity and revenue.

The institutional real estate community is also showing greater interest in sports assets. Advisory firms such as JLL and CBRE have established dedicated sports real estate practices, reflecting the growing recognition of sport as a tool for property activation and long-term value creation.

However, not every padel facility will become an institutional-grade asset.

Real estate value still depends on recurring use, stable cash flow, and a credible operator. A weak operator can turn a promising amenity into an underused facility.

One possible next step is greater separation between operating companies and property companies, commonly known as an OpCo-PropCo structure.

The operating company manages participation, pricing, programming, and brand growth. The property company owns the underlying real estate and leases it to the operator.

This structure can provide more clearly defined risk-and-return profiles: asset-light expansion for operators and more stable, income-focused exposure for real estate investors.

The model is beginning to emerge, but large-scale transactions remain limited. Ownership is still fragmented, and the sector has not yet reached full transactional maturity.

As operating performance becomes easier to measure and facilities become more standardized, padel assets may become easier to finance, consolidate, and include in institutional portfolios.

Equipment

Padel’s equipment market creates another source of value beyond clubs.

The market has grown at a compound annual growth rate of 34% since 2019. In 2025, rackets accounted for approximately €402 million of a €598 million equipment market, or 67% of total value.

Rackets are therefore the structural anchor of the category.

They also create repeated opportunities for brands, platforms, and operators to engage with players beyond the facility. Equipment can support retail revenue, brand loyalty, player identity, product segmentation by skill level, and repeat purchases.

In a market where court capacity is physically constrained, equipment provides a more scalable source of revenue.

The strongest ecosystems are likely to connect the physical club, digital services, social communities, and consumer products.

Sweden and Chile show the risks of overbuilding

The most valuable lessons do not always come from the fastest-growing markets.

In some cases, they come from markets that are already undergoing a correction.

Sweden expanded rapidly, but supply moved ahead of sustainable demand. The market is now experiencing declining occupancy, corporate restructuring, consolidation, and club exits.

Chile followed a similar pattern. After a rapid supply expansion, monthly reservations reportedly fell by 27%, while more than 80 clubs closed as the market began to rebalance.

These cases do not weaken the long-term case for padel. They show the danger of assuming that early growth will continue indefinitely.

In every early-stage market, temporary scarcity can be mistaken for sustainable demand.

Long waits for courts, high occupancy, and premium prices can encourage aggressive development. But when regular playing habits are not deeply established and demand remains concentrated, new supply can quickly change the market’s economics.

The lesson is not that operators should avoid expansion. It is that they must distinguish between interest, recurring participation, and sustainable commercial demand.

That distinction determines whether investment supports a durable business or contributes to the next market correction.

Strategic implications

Padel’s next phase remains growth-oriented, but it is no longer a simple expansion market.

The most attractive opportunities are likely to emerge where four conditions come together:

• strong, recurring demand;
• suitable infrastructure;
• capable operators;
• appropriate real estate.

Europe remains the benchmark region, but it should not be treated as one market.

Spain and Italy illustrate the optimization of mature markets. France and the Netherlands show markets where supply is developing more closely in line with demand. The UK and Germany demonstrate growth under infrastructure constraints. Sweden and Finland show the risks of overbuilding.

The US and Asia-Pacific offer significant long-term potential, but they require patience. These markets still need broader awareness, stronger local ecosystems, more established playing habits, and clearer evidence of recurring demand before large-scale expansion becomes reliable.

Operators with strong digital infrastructure, substantial indoor coverage, organized programming, and multiple revenue sources are likely to outperform.

The nearly fivefold revenue gap between top-performing and bottom-performing clubs suggests that the operating model has become the main source of competitive advantage.

Real estate investors are also likely to become more involved, but selectively. Padel can support foot traffic, property activation, wellness positioning, and long-term value, but only when it is supported by measurable demand and credible operations.

The broader conclusion is that padel has entered a phase in which disciplined execution matters more.

Growth opportunities remain, but the market is asking harder questions: not only where courts can be built, but where they can be filled, priced, programmed, financed, and integrated into a broader club and property strategy.

That is the difference between a sport expanding and an industry maturing.